139 points by niklasbuschmann 2 days ago | 67 comments
throw0101d 10 minutes ago
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-negative-price-1.553899...
timoth3y 2 days ago
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/08/26/491342091/plan...
They traced the path of their barrel from purchase, to production, to refining, to the sale of the various hydrocarbon products.
It's a great listen.
sgt 9 hours ago
DrFalkyn 5 hours ago
johannes1234321 2 hours ago
conductr 1 hour ago
The barrels never had been used for crude oil when I’ve inquired. Sometimes a refined oil product likely used as a raw material for a manufacturing process, but never crude. I think it’s never transported in such small quantities to make sense of using actual barrels. It’s more so a unit of measure, probably with some valid historical context.
My understanding is it’s most likely transported from a well via a pipeline and may need a short trip in a truck or train (tanker style) to get to the pipeline from the well. The well itself usually has a collection reservoir to allow for 24/7 extraction.
I don’t know exactly I’ve just been vaguely around oil industry and engineers my whole life due to where I live.
pixl97 15 minutes ago
In small fields they'll typically have larger tanks from the 1,000 to 10,000 gallon size. Wells typically also produce some water and small amounts of nat gas so they'll have some way to either store or burn the gas, and they'll either separate the water on site for disposal, or have a mixed oil/water product that is seperated at a later stage.
If the node isn't on a pipeline a vacuum/pump truck will show up either when the alerting systems hit a particular level, or when a particular interval of time has passed to ensure the equipment is still working.
Modern bulk pump trucks are simply the fastest way to move the product. No one in it for profit is going to move the unrefined product in amounts that small. It's not valuable enough.
tokai 1 hour ago
johannes1234321 1 hour ago
Now for some use that may be fine, but that also requires proper cleaning (following environment proection rules etc)
My question was more like a cycle. The metal itself certainly got some value as well.
Mistletoe 2 hours ago
pelagicAustral 6 hours ago
Swoerd123 4 hours ago
HPsquared 3 hours ago
pydry 4 hours ago
nickdothutton 3 hours ago
HPsquared 3 hours ago
ahazred8ta 2 days ago
kchoudhu 3 hours ago
Even oil, which is physically delivered settles physically in discrete locations. It would be pretty funny if someone delivered tankers full of oil to your office though lol.
colechristensen 9 hours ago
This is why in rare occasions the price of a thing goes negative because trading in that thing you are contractually obligated to take delivery and people trying to unload that obligation sometimes can't find buyers until they are paid to take delivery. It happens when nobody really wants to buy a thing and there is no capacity left to store or ship. When you buy a futures contract and you don't want delivery you have to sell it to close your position, and rarely you have to give people large sums of money so you can close.
tialaramex 7 hours ago
Suppose my actual oil futures go from $800k to $900k, the ideal ETF is trying to ensure that $800k also turns into $900k just as if its investors were in actual oil futures. But these aren't futures and don't result in delivery - so critically when real oil futures blow up and that $900k turns into -$1M because the global economy had a heart attack the ETF cannot be worth -$1M as it's just paper and I don't have to pay you one cent.
For the ETFs this means a negative exposure for the operator - they're eating unlimited downside but can't pass that on to their customers, and for a blip like 2020 that's survivable (if you're well capitalised) but longer term it would be fatal.
LittleTimothy 4 hours ago
chii 6 hours ago
tialaramex 3 hours ago
In some cases there is basically a bucket shop (hopefully not literally, those are illegal) and so you're betting against somebody with lots of capital, but in that scenario it can definitely go very bad and it's important to read your fine print. I believe in 2020 some funds pointed out that in their fine print it said they get to choose not to follow a month's oil delivery if they need to, so, you expected $15M for the June oil because it went negative as you'd hoped, but too bad we've decided to roll that over to July oil, and that's going to lose you money as you have to wait a month longer and get worse results.
That sort of thing is obviously infuriating for an investor, but as with gambling firms who won't pay (and this happens a lot if you win serious money gambling, e.g. Oops, when you gave us $100 we forgot to ask for valid ID, but now that we owe you $150 000 because you got lucky we've remembered - without ID actually the bet was illegal, so here's the $100 back and no hard feelings) they get a reputation for not paying and that does eventually hurt them.
detaro 5 hours ago
Isn't it the other way around? Because you would be stuck holding the bag the prices went negative?
tialaramex 3 hours ago
Marazan 6 hours ago
This, in many ways is a ridiculous sentence which shows what is wrong with the futures market. Futures are contracts for the supply of commodities. All futures should be settled by the actual commodity! That we have got to a situation where the vast majority of futures contracts are just 2nd order bets on the price of thing rather than delivery of the thing is non optimal.
kqr 5 hours ago
Futures, specifically, are useful for implicitly borrowing commodities to control inventory levels across time. An airline needs continuous access to jet fuel, so to be safe, they buy more jet fuel than they need in the cash market. But they don't want to pay for owning all this jet fuel, so they simultaneously sell it off in the futures market. Thus, they have created a loan of jet fuel, making sure they have spare fuel available when they need it without outright having to own it.
In order to have a loan, one needs a speculator willing to buy the credit risk. More speculators usually leads to more liquidity and more accurate deals on loans. There's nothing wrong with this at all.
See The Economic Function of Futures Markets by Williams (1986) if you are curious.
potato3732842 3 hours ago
If the airline wants to ensure future supply at a given prices they can simply buy futures settled in actual product.
Hedging against future volatility by agreeing on a deal "now" is the entire point. Sure, sometimes you lose when there's a price drop but the other guy won. At the end of the day everyone benefits from smoothing out the volatility.
Buying and selling cash settled futures is just how small time buyers and sellers access the market since they can't take delivery of entire train loads of goods but still need to hedge.
Finance professionals trading them around to wring out an extra percent here and there it beside the point.
seanhunter 1 hour ago
For every person who is trying to hedge future volatility, there has to be a person on the other side of that contract who is speculating on the possibility that the hedge guy is more frightened that they should be.
You need hedgers and speculators to have a two-way market, and in markets where you have predominantly hedgers they get completely fleeced by the few speculators brave/dumb enough to take the other side of their trades. This is because many markets are structurally unbalanced such that the people who need to hedge long (producers) and people who need to hedge short (consumers) operate on different timeframes etc. So if I’m a farmer growing some crop I might want to sell the 1yr future, but the guy trying to hedge the price for purchase (wholesale grocer or whatever) will be hedging the front future like 1m out. So someone has to carry the risk in the forward curve between 1m and 1 year or noone gets the hedge they need and the market doesn’t work.
Quite aside from that, there are all sorts of things which are cash-settled because you literally can’t do a physical settlement but people need to hedge (yes and speculate) anyway. Take an index future on an equity index. How are you going to physically settle a future on the SPX or (god forbid) the Russell? The liquidity consequences would be devastating to markets.
potato3732842 15 minutes ago
Buyers and sellers both want to hedge and they're both happy to give up some potential upside of getting one over on the other guy in exchange for stability.
As you mentioned, timeframes and volumes often don't match up perfectly. So enter the speculators. They provide a lot of the liquidity. And they get paid for it. Like they make a 1yr bet and 12 1mo counter bets and do that enough that the wins and losses smooth out and they make a few pennies on the dollar.
The futures market is basically a cyclone of financialization whipping around an eye of "actual business doing actual things" that needs to smooth out volatility (because you can't make a huge investment in a volatile market or you might get screwed into not being able to make payroll some quarter even though what you're up to is solvent any given year).
You can apply the same model to financial goods (and you often want to because the solvency of all sorts of banking activities is predicated on market conditions the same way that industrial activity is dependent upon commodity prices and you can't have good stuff going tits up because of a bad quarter)
But at the end of the day you need some core of participants who at the limit are willing to pay to limit/cap/reduce risk and volatility otherwise there's no market because the whole market is bets and counter bets about how that core activity will turn out.
kqr 2 hours ago
keepamovin 5 hours ago
formercoder 3 hours ago
keepamovin 45 minutes ago
kqr 3 hours ago
keepamovin 3 hours ago
But also i don't really understand what you mean by infinitely perishable? Can you explain more?
kqr 2 hours ago
When a clould provider pretends to sell you five minutes of compute they are not really selling you five minutes of compute, but promising to split off five minutes of partial compute from other tenants to make room for you. It gets a little complicated...
watwut 3 hours ago
Also, while origin stories are nice, most future trades are pure speculations on price. There is no reason to pretend these original stories are how securities are actually used.
Your story may make a bit more sense with options where one party can choose to exercises their right to sell or buy. Then you can use it to manage actual amounts of commodity. But futures do not carry any such option with it. It is strict agreement with no choices. The plane company can use futures to guarantee certain fuel price in the future, so that some short term market swing wont make fuel too expensive for them.
kqr 1 hour ago
That is also not what Williams says. He says a simultaneous long cash--short future position is practically the same as a loan of the corresponding commodity. (With the lending side being short cash--long future.) This activity accounts for many of the patterns we see in futures markets.
seanhunter 1 hour ago
frontfor 6 hours ago
alfiedotwtf 3 hours ago
speedylight 2 days ago
beaviskhan 2 days ago
emchammer 2 days ago
Animats 10 hours ago
It's not at all uncommon to trade a tanker load of oil, and this may result in the tanker being re-directed mid-trip, or being anchored somewhere for a while. Those are normal shipping events. (Yes, there are parking spaces for oil tankers. Here are the ones in the San Francisco Bay.[1])
I have read of an oil trader who bought a trainload of railroad tank cars of oil as a similar deal. That was a bigger hassle, because finding and paying for a storage track to park the tank cars became his problem. There is a market in railroad siding for storage, but there are not that many available spaces. Most of them are in Outer Nowhere, someplace where there used to be something that needed track but no longer does.[2] Managing this tied up a lot of high-priced broker time. Supposedly worked out OK, but nobody wanted to do it again.
[1] https://www.sfmx.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Anchorage-9-...
rkagerer 10 hours ago
sgarland 4 hours ago