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Is it better to fail spectacularly?

114 points by hasheddan 2 days ago | 112 comments

ebiester 2 days ago

It all comes down to the consequences of failure.

If failure means homelessness, avoid failure.

If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of completing a marathon, be conservative.

If the difference between failing and succeeding is minimal in your life, burn the bridges! This was not his first marathon, and even if he bonked, he'd likely still be able to finish it, albeit slowly.

wing-_-nuts 2 days ago

The question of consequences is real. I graduated in 2008 at the beginning of the great recession, and I watched some of my classmates go off and do startups. I asked them 'Dude, what if you fail?!' and one of them just shrugged his shoulders and said he'd move back home with his parents, and get a job at his dad's company. No big deal.

That's when I realized it was much easier to take those risks when you knew you had a safety net to fall back on and you didn't have to worry about winding up homeless sleeping under an overpass.

rqtwteye 2 days ago

I did some real estate deals with guys from wealthy families a long time ago. We failed but the difference in consequences was enormous. I lost my savings of 10 years and struggled getting out of the situation. The other guys got bailed out by dad, did more deals and are now very successful business people.

jbs789 2 days ago

Sorry to hear. For the benefit of others, I read this as the importance of sizing the bet relative to your portfolio and nobody else’s, and is broadly applicable.

If someone bets a million bucks on stock A, but is worth a billion bucks, then that’s not $1m conviction, it’s <1% conviction. And that information is then factored into the size of my bet.

Unfortunately I also learned this the hard way.

rqtwteye 2 days ago

Problem is that your bets have to be of a certain size to make a difference. Making 100% on $100 is not doing much good for you. So the guy with less money has to take much higher relative risks if he wants to get somewhere.

compsciphd 23 hours ago

that's get rich quick mentality. get rich quick mentality is bad.

HeyLaughingBoy 6 hours ago

Sometimes it's exactly the needed mentality. You can't always assume that you have all the time in the world to get to where you need to be.

creole_wither 15 hours ago

Kelly Criterion

wadadadad 2 days ago

I really like the word conviction here for this concept and this use is new to me; has this been used before? A casual search for me doesn't term up anything.

tracerbulletx 1 day ago

41 Jesus sat down opposite the place where the offerings were put and watched the crowd putting their money into the temple treasury. Many rich people threw in large amounts. 42 But a poor widow came and put in two very small copper coins, worth only a few cents.

43 Calling his disciples to him, Jesus said, “Truly I tell you, this poor widow has put more into the treasury than all the others. 44 They all gave out of their wealth; but she, out of her poverty, put in everything—all she had to live on.”

jbs789 1 day ago

I really appreciate this comment! (I think that word just popped into my head given some professional experience recently rather than being sourced from the field.)

bhattid 1 day ago

There's a formalism in math/information theory describing this idea called the Kelly criterion. Not a common/colloquial phrase, but it describes a similar idea of portioning bet size according to percentage of available cash based on the risk of the bet.

deepnet 1 day ago

Matching risk profiles with business partners or co-founders is vital and often overlooked

Mostly Folk match expectations, I.e. upsides

Downside fear is a very great motivator

A lack of consequential downsides can make folk sensibly choose to cut their losses and move on.

Sometimes this is invisible as parents bailing you out is not known before and may be a private discussion.

All or nothing downsides can mean folk will work themselves close to death to win ( or just not lose )

It also effects how much someone will gamble to get a unicorn rather than settle for a comfy income

Have the downside discussion early on

packetlost 2 days ago

Family is easier, but you can also build up a support network with close friendships too. It doesn't necessarily come for free, but it's certainly possible. That isn't to say it's equal, especially when it comes to money.

ilrwbwrkhv 2 days ago

[flagged]

sombrero_john 2 days ago

Dig a little deeper into your dataset and you will find that the reason these people didn't end up homeless is because most of them have well-off / supportive families, trust funds, or Ivy League degrees.

That said I agree that people give in to fear too much, which prevents them from taking risks.

ilrwbwrkhv 2 days ago

Homelessness is not happening. If you have the skills to even attempt a startup, you can for sure get a job.

ebiester 2 days ago

I saw a bunch of people who had the skills to get a job take months to get one in 2023 and 2024. I've also seen people who think they have the skills to attempt a startup that did not.

All it takes is a downturn at the wrong time and a low capacity for risk.

ipaddr 2 days ago

I'll take that guarantee and raise you. Someone on here who posts was in that situation.

If you risk homelessness on a lottery ticket you are making a bad choice.

Cheer2171 2 days ago

Homelessness != sleeping outdoors or in a homeless shelter. If you have to move out of your home and live with family or friends because you lost your job, you have lost your home and are homeless.

tetha 2 days ago

This is pretty much the framework I teach admins at work:

- What impact does the change have?

- How do you get out of that change, and how long does that take?

- And what is your confidence into the change, and the bail-out plan?

And honestly, if you have a high-confidence, fast bailout plan, you can be downright brazen/#yolo about changes. We've recently had to update a central and critical IDP, but we eventually realized: We have the old docker images, and it has a 200MB sized DB. We can dump + restore that in 2 minutes. So if the upgrade goes wrong, we have high confidence to rollback in like 5 minutes. At such a point.. why not just go with it?

Similar things are developing with Postgres upgrades. Setup 1 leader + 3 replicas, upgrade 2 replicas, failover, see how much explodes and at worst, fall back. If we can test beforehand, alright.

Other teams plan complicated upgrades requiring coordinated actions of 6 other teams. And like 3 know how to possibly take back that change? And like 4 know what to actually do? Ugh, this ended up in a fun weekend.

Aurornis 2 days ago

> If the difference between failing and succeeding is minimal in your life, burn the bridges!

The author’s analogy was about burning ships, not bridges, but your quote about burning bridges reminds me of related scenario I’m seeing more frequently among young people I’ve mentored: The idea that burning bridges is not a big deal because there are always more opportunities.

I’m in a big Slack where people come to ask for advice on tech careers. An alarming number of questions in recent years are from people who want to leave their jobs with a bang: Quitting without notice, intentionally making things difficult for their successor, unloading their grievances with specific people as they leave, posting big angry messages on the company Slack on their last day, and other ill-advised ideas.

They’re always disappointed when the Slack unanimously tells them it’s a bad idea to intentionally burn bridges like that. I guess it’s not until later in your career that you realize the value of being able to call on old managers and coworkers for referrals or job opportunities. They see leaving a job as the last time they’ll ever see any of those people. We have to remind them every time that networking is important and therefore they don’t want to leave a lasting negative impression on a place where they spent years building a reputation. Just do your two weeks notice and quietly exit.

Tangential, but it comes up enough in these scenarios about taking on new risks that I thought I’d mention it.

ebiester 2 days ago

You're right, though in this case I was just typing quickly and didn't double check the analogy after reading the post. :)

I have found that a bad network is often worse than no network in that the type of people that work in a way you hate will lead you to jobs that are not right for you. Going back to the point above, this all depends on your risk capacity. I speak that as someone with a high risk capacity. For someone who has not built up reserves, that is terrible advice.

JumpCrisscross 13 hours ago

> If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of completing a marathon, be conservative

Strongly disagree here. There are many marathons. Push yourself as hard as you can. Worst case, you miss and can’t attempt again. But you had fun and have plenty of other things you can do with your time and physique.

rqtwteye 2 days ago

I think people are using the word "fail" a little too much. Not getting your marathon time may hurt your ego a little but ultimately it's not a big deal. I would use the word "fail" for things that have real consequences.

eddd-ddde 2 days ago

"Fail" is by definition to be unsuccessful on one's goal.

It can literally mean my cake burned in the oven or my company loses millions of dollars.

Consequences are irrelevant.

margalabargala 2 days ago

I interpreted the "spectacular" part of the fail a bit differently.

The author had options to either 1) try for right at 3 hours, and either succeed or fail, or 2) push harder, get a much better time, and perhaps succeed but risk putting himself in a state where he did not finish at all. The failure to finish at all due to the extra reach is the spectacular fail referred to.

imetatroll 18 hours ago

I agree. Fail only applies when talking about losing your ability to house, cloth, and feed yourself (and your family). Otherwise, it is just play-acting at failure.

TacticalCoder 2 days ago

> I think people are using the word "fail" a little too much.

The issue is when it's combined with "spectacularly".

As in: "I spectacularly failed at boiling my eggs. I let them boil for 7 minutes instead of 6 minutes 30. What a spectacular fail".

But nobody gives a flying f--k about my failed eggs.

Xymist 2 days ago

I would envision a "spectacular failure" at boiling eggs to mean the pot boiled dry and the eggs caught fire, burning down your kitchen.

pazimzadeh 2 days ago

> My pre-race fueling strategy of not increasing the total intake, but trying to eliminate everything but carbs seemed to pay off. I felt like I had plenty of energy, and my stomach felt good the entire race, which is extremely rare for me

But maybe eating just carbs led to low minerals, hence the cramping? You could try to bank by eating oysters and a potassium supplement two days before?

hasheddan 2 days ago

Good suggestion. I think that my pre-race fueling strategy was better than previous races, but certainly lots of room for further improvement!

wsintra2022 2 days ago

In the upcoming preview for Slow Horses new season. “At least my lot fail spectacularly, your lot just fuck up” - Jackson Lamb

gcanyon 2 days ago

Shout out for Slow Horses, one of the best shows on TV.

      “So you're in charge of the rejects.” 
   “They don't like being called that.” 
      “What do you call them?” 
   “The rejects.” -- Jackson Lamb